Nearly 500 miles from here, some residents in Stinson Beach face the prospect of having to abandon their homes because of sea level rise.
They’re not any happier about that possibility than homeowners on the shores of Del Mar and low-lying beach communities throughout the state.
The struggle taking place in the upscale Marin County enclave is a familiar one, and recent reports suggest this reality is not far off. There’s no guarantee, however, that Stinson Beach will face its watery fate before others, given some still-unpredictable aspects of how much, how quickly and where the oceans are rising.
But there’s no doubt the sea is coming and some of the land it will consume includes homes, commercial buildings, public facilities and infrastructure. And it seems every new study says global warming is occurring more rapidly than previously thought and the sea level rise it causes is happening faster than predicted.
Studies show that numerous homes in Stinson Beach would flood with just 1 foot of sea rise, according to a report by the San Francisco Chronicle in late April.
“Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) projects that this will likely happen in under 20 years (the same data set shows a rise of nearly four feet by the end of the century),” the Chronicle wrote.
Tensions between Stinson Beach and the California Coastal Commission have grown as residents seek to protect their property — and property values. Projects aimed at doing that, such as building sea walls, are not considered viable, long-term solutions by the state agency, which has tremendous authority over development along the coast.
Such a clash is familiar in San Diego County between the city of Del Mar and the commission. Del Mar has steadfastly opposed including a hotly disputed option in its sea level rise adaptation plan: “managed retreat,” which is a methodical process of moving structures and facilities back from areas certain to be flooded or rendered uninhabitable by erosion.
The Coastal Commission so far is not requiring communities to adopt a managed retreat strategy, or something similar, but wants it considered as an option.
In many beach communities, managed retreat sounds like a nuclear option and often blows up discussions about how to deal with sea level rise.
If approved by the Coastal Commission, the adaptation plan would become part of Del Mar’s Local Coastal Program that gives the city control over local development.
Del Mar’s initial proposed plan in 2019 relied primarily on maintaining its existing seawalls and the continual restoration of sand to its eroding beaches, according to Phil Diehl of The San Diego Union-Tribune. He noted that sand replenishment is a costly and potentially short-lived solution.
The Coastal Commission countered with 25 suggested modifications that the city has said could become a “back door” to retreat.
“We have managed retreat lurking between these words,” said then-Councilmember Terry Gaasterland, who is currently mayor.
Commission officials were critical of the city for rejecting all of the modifications “without any discussion or consultation with us whatsoever,” commission Executive Director Jack Ainsworth said at the time.
Del Mar agreed to continue negotiations and the commission held off on taking action.
Meanwhile, a bill by Senate President Pro Tempore Toni Atkins, D-San Diego, that would create a financial incentive for coastal communities to prioritize planning for the inevitable is moving through the Legislature.
Senate Bill 1 seeks to provide $100 million annually for grants to local governments that, according to the bill’s analysis, “have agreed most effectively and urgently to plan for and implement actions to address sea level rise. . .”
The Coastal Commission took issue with some reports that suggested all of Stinson Beach would have to be abandoned. “We do not believe and would never say” that, the commission said in a statement.
The agency says various options should be considered — living shorelines bolstered by natural materials, beach nourishment and, yes, managed retreat.
As for sea walls, they “can provide some temporary protection for a structure,” according to an agency spokesperson, who added they are not a broad solution.
“If much of the coastline is lined with sea walls, Californians all lose beaches, public access, wildlife habitat and the associated economic benefits. California’s $40 billion coastal economy is at risk if the state loses its beaches,” Noaki Schwartz, public information officer for commission, told the Chronicle.
A sea wall actually exists in an area of Stinson Beach that, along with other protections, could create a sort of haves-and-have-nots situation.
The gated community of Seadrift was developed in the 1950s — long before the Coastal Commission existed — and built a rock wall to protect homes, many of which are built on raised foundations. Other areas down the beach have no such protections and, from the sound of it, aren’t likely to get them.
Overall, there are parallels with Del Mar. Marin County proposed a sea level rise plan. The Coastal Commission countered with suggested changes, which the county did not accept. They are now in negotiations, according to one news report.
Among the many issues involving “moving” homes is, where are you going to put them? Areas of both Stinson Beach and Del Mar most threatened by the rising sea don’t have a lot of land out of harm’s way.
Mike Matthews, president of the association that represents Stinson Beach homeowners, told the Chronicle that caution should be exercised before taking drastic action.
“It is true you have to look for the worst-case events in planning but you want to have some sense that they’re actually going to happen. Let’s see what actually does happen and then manage it,” he said.
He, of course, did not use the word “retreat.”